A project of the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Transatlantic Policy Network
1. BACKGROUND:
The United States and European Union relate to each other through an increasing number of policy dialogues ― covering such issues as financial regulation, regulatory policy, border security and transportation, climate change and international law. While detailed and sometimes effective in addressing specific issues, these dialogues have not yet contributed substantially to the construction of a shared transatlantic vision of the strategic challenges that will confront the United States and Europe in the coming years. Nor have they yet been effective in identifying potential transatlantic responses to these challenges.
With the pace of globalization ever quickening, and its impact reaching more deeply into national societies and economies, the dialogue across the Atlantic must become more strategic in assessing what such responses must be. Opportunities already exist in addition to the policy dialogues ― at the annual U.S.-EU summit, at the occasional “Transatlantic dinners” of foreign ministers, and at sessions of NATO’s North Atlantic Council. But most individuals involved in these meetings feel that the content of these dialogues should be improved.
Should such a situation be allowed to continue when the urgency of transatlantic co-operation becomes ever greater? Or is there a way in which there can be distinct improvements made without new formal institutions being set up immediately? Fortunately, a real opportunity now presents itself to address this gap in strategic thinking with the publication of ‘Global Trends 2025: a Transformed World’ through shaping an in-depth discussion of the fundamental challenges facing the United States and the European Union.
How can this be done?
2. A NEW INITIATIVE …..AIMS AND PURPOSES:
In May 2008, the Atlantic Council and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EU-ISS) brought together a group of US and European analysts, including representatives of TPN, for a discussion of two forward-looking documents: the NIC’s Mapping the Global Future report on the year 2020, and the EU-ISS report, the New Global Puzzle, which sought to provide a European perspective on the future. In December 2008, the Atlantic Council and TPN collaborated to present the NIC’s report to several audiences in Brussels, including representatives of European think tanks, members of the European Parliament, NATO policy planners and Brussels-based business executives. The NIC report was greeted with considerable interest, along with discussion about the need for greater involvement by European Governments and policy-makers in this type of analysis as a way of fostering a more strategic outlook and a closer transatlantic relationship.
The ACUS and TPN propose to establish and develop a Transatlantic Strategy Forum one dedicated to in-depth discussion of the fundamental global challenges jointly facing the United States and the European Union. To demonstrate the importance of identifying shared strategic priorities, the aim is to prepare a joint transatlantic response to the vision of the future presented in the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s report, ‘Global Trends 2025: a Transformed World’. This exercise is designed to help build a transatlantic capacity to identify long-term trends in a number of key policy areas and to keep policy-makers informed on both sides of the Atlantic of the near and medium-term implications of these trends.
Along with the Atlantic Council and TPN, other potential partner institutions include Chatham House, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and DGAP. The EU Institute for Security Studies has already taken a considerable interest to assist with the project, as have policy planners at NATO. It is also anticipated that the U.S. National Intelligence Council will be an active participant in the meetings of the Transatlantic Strategy Forum, to the extent that schedules and government obligations allow.
Thus, to start with, this will take the form of a dialogue among leading think tanks and policy experts during 2009 to emerge from being a pilot project to being fully operational by January 2012. The long-term aim, however, will be to build the capacity and expectation for such a dialogue to be sustained on the official government level. In time, the U.S. and European governments (along with the EU institutions and NATO) should jointly undertake a strategic assessment of the future, and together identify appropriate policy responses. This will no doubt require better coordination and increased capacity of the EU's ability to think long term, a process just beginning with the establishment by the European Council of a Reflection Group to consider the long-term challenges ahead for the EU by 2020-2030, whose report is due by June 2010.
3. START UP PROGRAMME FOR 2009:
The year 2009 provides the Transatlantic partners with an ideal moment to support such an initiative. Not only is a new U.S. administration about to enter office, but also Europeans are optimistic that transatlantic ties can be enhanced and developed. The next 3 Council Presidencies – Czechia, Sweden and Spain running to June 2010 – are all enthusiastic to make progress on strengthening Transatlantic relations. The European Commission and the European Parliament are also very supportive of such developments.
Given the unpredictable nature of political events during 2009, it is unwise to set out a precise calendar of events at this stage. But the first event wias the public launch of the TSF by Alexandr Vondra, deputy Prime Minister for foreign affairs of the Czech Republic, in his official EU Presidency capacity, on February 17th in Brussels.
Following this occasion, events will be organized during 2009 on both sides of the Atlantic involving the founding partners, including one in Washington in conjunction with the US/EU summit to which a brief policy-oriented document could be presented, with the help, amongst others, of the EUISS in its preparation. As the activities of the TSS develop, every effort will be made to reach out to experts from all relevant sectors to contribute to the process. Websites of the founding partners could be used to build up the summaries of such activities.
A more substantial report will then be submitted in the Autumn to the Swedish Presidency and the incoming European Commission, which should be in office by 1 November 2009. This will address major themes of importance such:
+ Security and Terrorism;
+ Globalisation, including economic and social implications;
+ Energy and Environment;
+ Demography and Immigration;
+ Global Governance
The paper will also address the need for a restructured dialogue between the United States and its European partners and propose some institutional steps designed to encourage joint assessments of the future and development of coordinated policy responses. A more detailed list of the issues which could be covered by the TSF in its activities is summarized here.
This report, if so desired, could become an annual one, based on updated assessments of long term trends on both sides of the Atlantic. It would provide invaluable information to US and European policy-makers, and would be available to all on both sides of the Atlantic for discussion and debate, being the basis for a Transatlantic Ideas Fair in Washington D.C around Easter time 2010. This would bring in leading politicians, businessmen, academics and others to interact with the reports’ conclusions in the major policy areas.
